Nifty likely to struggle to trade above 4,900

AFTERgap-down opening at 4,870 and moving down to the day’s low 4,813, the Nifty October futures closed in a Doji pattern, as the day timeframe traders, mostly institutions, turned buyers at the lower level. A Doji pattern is formed when the opening price is the same or very close to the closing price. The Doji today had a long lower shadow, which suggests active sellers at the initial stage, but once the selling dried up, buyers took the charge to regain losses on the day. The market profile suggested a normal day, as it had wide initial balance (IB) and occupied 80 per cent of the day’s trading range. It is difficult to establish any trend out of such a profile, as the Nifty, after opening gap-down, did not fill the morning gap during the course of the trading session. Nevertheless, buying range extension today occurred below the previous value area and, hence, it was a responsive activity from buyers. This is a weak signal. Technically, the  gap down has to be filled in the next few days, or it could mean that the current trend would further deteriorate.The technical indicators in the medium term and short term are clearly pointing southward. The target on the downside now stands at 4,700 and any break below that could take the Nifty down to the 4,500 level. The global cues remained an important factor for the market momentum, and hence, it is very difficult to predict the upper or lower price range on the basis of the market picture chart. The MKTP chart suggested an upside resistance at 4,909 and volume-based selloff could lead to a low of 4,813. So watch  yesterday  low suppose not break’s ,market can take U turn from current level.